For Abu Dhabi, the gamble of shielding itself with the U.S. and positioning itself as a global financial hub comes at a steep price. The narrative of the 'Switzerland of the desert,' an oasis of luxury and stability, crashes against the reality of an air defense that cannot offer guarantees.
The escalation of these days is not a bolt from the blue. What the Pentagon sells as a 'maritime policing' operation for the free energy market, in the eyes of Tehran, is the final act of encirclement. By striking Fujairah and the oil tankers, Iran sends a clear message: there will be no security for global trade as long as the Islamic Republic remains under sanctions siege. Tehran is not seeking territorial conquests, but the breaking of isolation through a 'toll war' in the Strait of Hormuz, which, although not the cause, has now become the symptom of the war against Iran. The topic of nuclear weapons is no longer being discussed.
In this desperate game of risk, the Emirates are the perfect target: too close to be ignored, too interconnected for their collapse not to shake the stock markets of half the world. And so we return to economic interests, more than to the threat of weapons of mass destruction.
To understand the conflicts of 2026, one must necessarily look at the ruins of the world before October 7, 2023. At that time, the Middle East was experiencing a strange duality: a frantic push towards diplomatic normalization between Israel and the Arab monarchies.
With the "Abraham Accords," trade between Israel and the United Arab Emirates had reached three billion dollars, while the Imec corridor promised to connect India to Europe by bypassing traditional routes. Mohammed bin Salman also seemed ready for the historic step. It was thought that economic pragmatism had definitively anesthetized ideologies.
And while the skyscrapers of the Gulf celebrated the new business, Palestine was reduced to a bureaucratic nuisance. Gaza had been an open-air prison since 2007, and in the West Bank, 2023 marked a record of settler violence and IDF incursions. The political vacuum left by a dying Palestinian Authority was being filled by new armed resistances, while Hamas seemed to prefer its status quo as the sole and undisputed power in Gaza over the precarious desire to resist the occupier.
The illusion that regional stability could be built by "bypassing" the rights of Palestinians collapsed at dawn on October 7. That event acted as systemic sabotage, transforming the "shadow war" between Israel and Iran into an open confrontation.
Today, even the April truce is a memory. With the launch of Project Freedom, the Gulf countries (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman) find themselves sucked into a conflict they cannot manage. The IDF maintains a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, reduced to a lunar landscape with over a million refugees. Syria, after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the northeast, has become the preferred hunting ground for the Israeli air force to strike Hezbollah's supply lines.
In this scenario of fragmentation, China – which has assumed the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of May 2026 – is trying to wedge itself into the diplomatic void left by the West. For Beijing, the failure of the US-led Project Freedom is clear evidence that security cannot be guaranteed by unilateral "maritime policing," but only by a return to multilateralism centered on the United Nations.
The UN Ambassador Fu Cong has been categorical: the stability of the Gulf will not come from new buffer zones or armed stockpiles, but from respect for national sovereignty and the immediate end of Israeli aggression.
China's diplomatic posture is not an exercise in altruism, but a reflection of vital interests. Beijing is currently the world's largest importer of crude oil, and over 40% of its energy needs pass through Hormuz. The stability of the region is, for China, synonymous with national security.
Business between China and Iran has undergone a decisive acceleration with the implementation of the 25-year strategic cooperation agreement signed in March 2021. Beijing has continued to purchase Iranian oil in exchange for technology and infrastructure in return for energy at discounted prices. For China, a stable Iran integrated into the Brics+ bloc (of which Tehran is a member) is the necessary counterbalance to American hegemony in the Gulf.
Xi Jinping has a strategy that is diametrically opposed to that of the United States, aiming to transform the Middle East into a central hub of Eurasia. But the risk he runs is high: positioning himself as a guarantor of order while financially supporting one of the contenders could backfire in the heat of a war that no longer respects any rules.