Behind the scenes of propaganda, conflict often appears more profitable than peace: just dig beneath the surface of ethical or religious pretexts to see a ruthless accounting emerge, where the economic gain of a few feeds on the sacrifice of the poorest. In this chessboard of interests, one key word dominates the analyses of experts and global markets these days: LNG.
That is, liquefied natural gas. It is the common methane gas we use for cooking, heating, and generating electricity, but transformed into liquid through an extreme cooling process at -162°C. This technology allows for a reduction in volume by as much as 600 times, making it transportable on huge tankers instead of through traditional pipelines. It is a strategic resource that provides flexibility to importing countries, allowing them to change suppliers with a simple sea voyage, but it requires expensive infrastructure such as regasification plants to return to a gaseous state before entering transport networks.
THE CURRENT OFFENSIVEmilitary, which has already struck the leadership of the Islamic Republic and caused the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has caused the price of this vital resource to skyrocket. On March 2, the price of the Ttf index (short for Title Transfer Facility – the reference market for trading natural gas in Europe. Although it is physically located in the Netherlands, its price determines how much we pay for gas in our bills even in Italy) rose by almost 50% in just a few hours after the market opened. The closure of production infrastructures and the blockade of maritime routes are therefore not just collateral damage, but elements of a global economic game where the energy security of the West and the control of gas flows are inextricably intertwined with the sound of bombs.
It all began in the early 2000s. Until then, the United States feared a gas shortage and were building terminals to import liquefied natural gas. The real turning point was learning to extract gas trapped inside very hard rocks. Americans perfected a technique that allows the drill to curve underground and move sideways for miles, following the layer of rock. Once positioned, water is injected at extremely high pressure that fractures the stone, creating small cracks from which gas can finally escape and rise to the surface. This innovation, fracking, transformed the United States from buyers to the world's leading producer of natural gas. In just a few years, domestic production exploded and gas prices in the United States collapsed. The rise of the United States from importer to dominant exporter in the global LNG market is one of the fastest and most radical changes in the history of energy.
AT THIS POINT, with an immense gas surplus, the American industry made a historic decision: to convert reception terminals into liquefaction plants for export. On February 24, 2016, the first load of American LNG left the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. Between 2017 and 2023, investments grew from a few billion to hundreds of billions of dollars. Huge terminals like Corpus Christi, Freeport, and Cameron LNG were born. In 2023, the United States officially surpassed Qatar and Australia, becoming the world's largest exporter of LNG.
FOR DECADES, THE NORD STREAMhas been one of the lifelines between Russia and Europe. Through this underwater pipeline, Moscow sold low-cost gas bypassing Ukraine and Poland, thus eliminating transit fees and political disputes. While for the Kremlin it was a powerful tool of influence, for Germany it represented the guarantee of low-cost energy for its industries. The United States, however, has always opposed the project, fearing that Europe would become too firmly entrenched in the Russian sphere of influence.
THE BREAKDOWN OFtrade relations for gas between Russia and Europe began with the war in Ukraine, but the situation deteriorated particularly from September 2022, when a series of underwater explosions ruptured the pipelines, permanently interrupting the flow of gas to the Old Continent. Although those responsible remain officially unknown, the effect was immediate: Europe lost its main source of energy, finding itself forced to buy American LNG transported by ship at much higher prices.
In a very short time, the United States has become the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas. Today, with Iran's threats to the Strait of Hormuz, the scenario has changed further. America is now the only 'safe harbor' for global natural gas: with domestic production at historic highs, Washington offers a stability that neither Moscow nor Qatar can guarantee anymore.
This arrangement is greatly enriching the American economy. Massive exports to Europe have reduced the U.S. trade deficit and attracted billions of dollars in new terminals in the Gulf of Mexico. The competitive advantage is enormous: while European companies are drowning in energy costs, factories in the United States pay very little for gas. The result is a capital flight, with many European companies choosing to relocate their facilities overseas.
THE CONFLICTS IN UKRAINEand in Iran have accelerated the metamorphosis, establishing the United States as an absolute energy superpower. On one hand, this guarantees independence from Russian blackmail, but on the other hand, it comes at a steep cost: European consumers are paying record bills, while energy has become extremely cheap in Texas. While it is true that the consolidation of U.S. energy hegemony does not exhaust the complex reasons for Middle Eastern disorder, it remains undeniable that it represents a formidable incentive to prefer the logic of conflict over that of peace.